Minority governments are meant to fall… or so we’ve been told. As the rumours around an impending federal election continue to swirl, it’s worth asking why Canadians would even need to return to the polls after what could be just two short years since the last election. The answer, it would seem, lies unabashedly in the pursuit of political power.
After suffering a string of scandals and burgeoning bad press, Justin Trudeau watched his majority government shrink to minority status during the 2019 federal election. With just 33 per cent of the vote, the Liberals barely held onto the reins of power and would need the help of other parties to pass legislation.
All things considered, that didn’t turn out too bad.
The Liberals soon found willing partners in the NDP and Bloc Québécois, bringing stability to the minority parliament. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic spurred even more parliamentary cooperation between the Liberals and the NDP with the passing of the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), an expanded wage subsidy program, the Canada Emergency Student Benefit and a national paid sick leave plan.
Turns out minority governments can work – although perhaps too well.
With public support for his government’s actions reaching record highs, Trudeau’s popularity began to climb – as did the popularity of most premiers. New Brunswick’s Premier Blaine Higgs became the first provincial leader to roll the dice on an election in the midst of the pandemic, followed by John Horgan in British Columbia, Scott Moe in Saskatchewan, and Andrew Furey in Newfoundland and Labrador. All led their parties to majority governments.
And therein lies the rub: Trudeau’s bump in the polls could very well prompt him to call an early election in spite of the functioning minority parliament that brought him such popularity. Of course, it would be politically perilous to admit as much, which is why Trudeau’s recent claims of “toxicity” and “obstructionism” in parliament were so interesting seeing as Jagmeet Singh has voiced his willingness to support the Liberals for their full four-year mandate – pending they play ball on some key NDP priorities.
Putting the claims of parliamentary toxicity aside, what is becoming increasingly clear is that an early election is quite likely to propel Trudeau’s minority government back to majority status in what would essentially amount to a do-over of the 2019 election. Recent polls suggest Trudeau could capture a majority government with as little as 38 per cent of the vote, obtaining absolute power on an increase of only five percentage points since the last election.
If that wasn’t enough, another poll asked people how they would feel if the Liberals and Trudeau won a majority government this fall: fifty-three per cent responded with “unhappy or distraught.”
If you’re left wondering how Trudeau could obtain a majority government in the face of majority opposition, well, welcome to the privilege of power under First Past the Post. As long as we continue to use an electoral system that gives one party a monopoly on power at the expense of others, Canadians will always be at the electoral whim of a prime minister’s poll numbers. The answer to overcoming one-party privilege is of course, Proportional Representation.
Recap: Fair Vote Ontario Volunteer Meeting
Thank you to everyone who attended our first Fair Vote Ontario meeting! It was wonderful to see so many new and familiar faces as we discussed our ongoing projects and future plans.
If you would like to get involved with FVO, including helping with social media, content creation or even outreach, please send an email to mi******************@gm***.com.
Picture It: Canada with Proportional Representation
For the 100th year anniversary of the first government to promise proportional representation, volunteer Nancy Carswell is making a series of videos imagining what Canada could have been like if that promise had been kept – in 1921!
Please watch her first video on ‘higher voter turnout’ by clicking here.
It turns out early elections at the federal level are actually quite common. Jean Chrétien called two snap elections during his 10 year reign (1997 and 2000), winning both times. It doesn’t always turn out so well though, as Wilfrid Laurier (1911) and John Turner (1984) found out when both lost their premierships in snap elections they themselves had called.
Perhaps the most interesting federal snap election happened in 1958 when Prime Minister John Diefenbaker called an election just nine months after securing a minority government. The gambit proved successful, winning him the largest majority in the history of Canada up to that date.